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黄敦明, 张茂军, 朱宁. 上市公司财务困境的动态预测模型[J]. 桂林电子科技大学学报, 2014, 34(1): 83-86.
引用本文: 黄敦明, 张茂军, 朱宁. 上市公司财务困境的动态预测模型[J]. 桂林电子科技大学学报, 2014, 34(1): 83-86.
Huang Dunming, Zhang Maojun, Zhu Ning. Dynamic forecasting model on financial distress of Chinese listed companies[J]. Journal of Guilin University of Electronic Technology, 2014, 34(1): 83-86.
Citation: Huang Dunming, Zhang Maojun, Zhu Ning. Dynamic forecasting model on financial distress of Chinese listed companies[J]. Journal of Guilin University of Electronic Technology, 2014, 34(1): 83-86.

上市公司财务困境的动态预测模型

Dynamic forecasting model on financial distress of Chinese listed companies

  • 摘要: 针对上市公司ST政策,基于公司连续2年净利润为负的特征,提出了预测上市公司财务困境的远期模型。采用2007-2012年的数据进行实证检验,计算了公司ST的远期概率。研究结果表明,一年期定期存款利率、上证指数一年期回报率、资产收益率、负债比率、GDP是影响上市公司陷入财务困境的主要因素,提出的远期模型为投资者判断上市公司财务状况提供了一种有效方法。

     

    Abstract: Based on the characteristic about the negative profit in continuous two years in view of the policy on the ST, a forward dynamic forecasting model on financial distress of Chinese listed companies is proposed. The forward probability of ST is computed to implement some empirical tests by using the yearly data from 2007 to 2012. The result shows that the important factors impacting the financial distress of Chinese listed firms are deposit rate, ROA, debt ratio, return rate of stock markets and GDP. The proposed model is one of the effective methods to judge the financial situations of the listed companies for the investors.

     

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